ABSTRACT
Exchange rates are crucial in regulating the foreign exchange market's dynamics. Because of the unpredictability and volatility of currency rates, the exchange rate prediction has become one of the most challenging applications of financial time series forecasting. This study aims to build and compare the accuracy of various methods. The time series model Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) are utilized to forecast the daily US dollar to Pakistan rupee currency exchange rates (USD/PKR). Lagged observations of the data series and moving average technical analysis are used in both models. Explanatory factors were used as indicators, and the prediction performance was assessed using a variety of commonly known statistical metrics. These statistical metrics suggested the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. Thus, the process turns to capture the volatility effect of conditional heteroscedasticity through GARCH modeling. It may be inferred based on the results of tentative models;that the ARCH model outperforms the GARCH model in terms of predicting the USD/PKR exchange rate.
ABSTRACT
ObjectiveIn this study, we aimed to find the seroprevalence of healthcare workers (HCWs) of Pakistan involved in the treatment and care of patients with COVID-19.SettingThis was a cross-sectional study and total of 15 000 HCWs involved in providing services and care to the patients with COVID-19 were randomly selected from all over Pakistan.ParticipantsInformed consent was taken from all participants and were included according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. All testing was done on serum samples for the qualitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using Abbott Chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay. An index of 1.4 was used as a cut-off to mark reactive and non-reactive cases. SPSS V.23.0 was used for data analysis.OutcomeImmune status of the study population depicting seroprevalence among HCWs.ResultsOut of all the candidates, majority of the HCWs were men (61.9%) and were doctors (62.4%). The mean age of participants was 32.8 years (SD 8.7) and majority were asymptomatic (51.8%). In this study, 33% of the HCWs were reactive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody. Around 44% of the reactive cases were asymptomatic. The symptoms more significantly associated with seropositivity were: fever (OR 1.31;95% CI 1.16 to 1.48), headache (OR 2.43;95% CI 2.16 to 2.73), cough and shortness of breath (OR 2.10;95% CI 1.91 to 2.31), loss of sense of smell or taste (OR 3.70;95% CI 3.29 to 4.17) (p<0.001). Factors which showed significant association with the presence of antibodies were professional category (absolute risk (AR) 0.09;OR 1.46;95% CI 1.36 to 1.56), availability of protective masks (AR 0.02;OR 0.90;95% CI 0.84 to 0.96), safety goggles (AR 0.02;OR 0.90;95% CI 0.84 to 0.97) and living arrangements (AR 0.03;OR 1.12;95% CI 1.04 to 1.20) (p<0.05).ConclusionOur study showed a high seropositivity of HCWs dealing with patients with COVID-19 in Pakistan revealing significant association with professional category, nature of work place and precautions taken while performing duties.
ABSTRACT
Background: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has undertaken strong measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Several steps were taken to communicate with the public on how the virus spreads and various precautionary measures to be taken to prevent the disease. The knowledge and perception regarding COVID-19 influence the design and implementation of preventive measures and campaigns to control the spread of the virus. Objectives: This study aims to assess the knowledge and perceptions of students at a health informatics program about COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This descriptive study utilized a web-based survey about COVID-19 pandemic was distributed to 320 students (222 females and 98 males) at the Bachelor in Health Informatics Program, Qassim University, Saudi Arabia the first week of April 2020. The survey instrument was developed and distributed to all students in the program using social media platforms. The survey required 10 minutes to complete. Results: The study revealed that only 20% of respondents had adequate knowledge about the signs and symptoms of COVID-19, with 22.5% had knowledge about the right modes of transmission of the virus. However, 55.6% of them had adequate knowledge of ways of protection against COVID-19. The study findings reveal that a significant knowledge gap exists among health informatics students about COVID-19 regardless of the amount of available information about the pandemic. Social media was the major source of information to a majority (79%) of respondents. Conclusion: As COVID-19 continues to devastate the healthcare systems and creates a huge threat to human wellbeing, it is paramount to improve the knowledge and perceptions of university students in Saudi Arabia. An appropriate health promotion platform is recommended to reach all students in the country.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To find out the sero-prevalence of COVID-19 IgG antibodies among policemen performing duties at high risk areas of Lahore, Pakistan. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional, observational study. PLACE AND DURATION OF STUDY: Chughtai Lab Lahore from 20th to 30th May 2020. METHODOLOGY: One hundred and fifty-four young policemen (mean age 27.1 ±3.8 years) were included in the study after written consent. Squad officers who had any sign of acute respiratory infection were excluded from the study. The participants were asked to fill a questionnaire regarding nature of exposure with the infected cases, kind of personal protective equipment they are provided with and living arrangements. Three ml of blood samples were collected from the participants and immediately sent to the lab for analysis. COVID-19 IgG antibodies were analysed using chemiluminescence immunoassay method on Architect Ci8200 (Abbott). SPSS 23.0 was used for data analysis. RESULTS: All participants were males and mean age was 27.1 ±3.8 years. Out of 154 squad members, 24 were reactive for COVID-19 IgG antibodies and performing duties at the areas of high virus exposure. None of COVID-19 IgG reactive cases exhibited symptoms and most of them performed duties at high risk areas with only masks provided as personal protective equipment. Only 10% of the participants who were exposed to confirmed cases of COVID-19 were found to have anti-COVID IgG. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 IgG antibody reactive cases may not show any symptoms. Police force is at high risk of exposure. Serosurveys can help to find the spread of infection in the community and aid in planning healthcare strategies. Key Words: COVID-19, SARS CoV-2, Seroprevalence, Pandemic, Asymptomatic cases.